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US Elections 2024: As the stage is set for the United States, the world’s largest economy, to elect its 41st President, Democratic nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are already facing a neck-and-neck battle in key swing states, according to reports.
About 1.4 million US citizens have voted in the presidential election, according to The Guardian. The catch, however, lies in the fact that even if all these citizens voted for either Democrat Harris or Republican Trump, she or he may still not become the president. This is because the US follows the Electoral College system.
Mint brings you an explainer in five points about the Electoral College.
2. On the contrary, a group of 538 “electors” select the president. These electors make up the Electoral College. Very often, the electors are party officials or supporters.
3. To win the White House, a presidential candidate must win the support of a majority of the electors. Out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a presidential candidate would need at least 270 votes to win. These electors ultimately cast their votes in December, roughly a month after the election, which is then certified by Congress in early January.
4. To become a president in the United States, a candidate has to garner support from enough swing states to achieve the magical ‘270’ mark. Effectively, a candidate who wins the popular vote, the maximum votes in total across the country, may not actually win the White House.
5. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump in the US Elections 2016 is a classic example of how the Electoral College can magnify a win into a landslide. Trump defeated Clinton 304-227 despite receiving 2.8 million fewer popular votes. Democratic candidate Al Gore had a similar fate in 2000 when he lost the White House despite winning the maximum number of votes.
The US electoral college system has been mired in controversy. In 2020, a study by Pew Research Centre showed that the system consistently produced more lopsided results than the popular vote.
According to the study, every presidential election since 1828 has revealed that the winner’s electoral vote share has, on average, been 1.36 times the popular vote share. This is also known as the electoral vote inflation (EVI) factor, that eventually determines the US President.
Thus, the bigger the EVI, the greater the disparity between the winner’s popular vote and electoral vote margins. Meanwhile, the lesser the EVI, the closer the two margins are to each other.
India, the world’s largest democracy, follows a similar electoral college pattern, wherein the votes are cast by national and state-level lawmakers. The electoral college is made up of all the elected members of the Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament (Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha MPs) and the elected Members of the Legislative Assemblies of States and Union Territories (MLAs).
The fixed value of each vote by an MP of the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha is 700. In India, to win the presidential race, the nominated candidate must secure 50 per cent of the total votes cast + 1.